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France Protest Forum |
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Population Starting with the 19th century, the historical evolution of the population in France has been extremely atypical in the Western World. Unlike the rest of Europe, France did not experience a strong population growth in the 19th century and first half of the 20th century. On the other hand, it experienced a much stronger growth in the second half of the 20th century than the rest of Europe or indeed its own growth in the previous centuries. After 1974, France's population growth stalled, and reached its nadir in the 1990s with only 0.39% annual growth, being now more in tune with the rest of Europe, which has entered demographic decline. However, first results from the 2004 French census have greatly surprised demographers. The census revealed that population growth rebounded significantly after the 1999 census, something nobody had anticipated. From 1999 to 2003, annual population growth was 0.58%. In 2004, population growth was 0.68%, almost reaching North American levels. 2004 was the year with the highest increase in French population since 1974. France is now well ahead of all other European countries (except for the Republic of Ireland). In 2003, France's natural population growth (excluding immigration) was responsible for almost all the natural growth in European population: the population of the European Union increased by 216,000 inhabitants (without immigration), of which 211,000 was the increase in France's population alone, and 5,000 was the increase in all the other countries of the EU combined. In 2004 the natural increase in France's population reached 256,000, but figures for other European countries are not available yet. These unexpected results bear great consequences for the future. At the moment, France is the third most populous country of Europe, behind Russia and Germany. By 2050, demographers initially thought the population of metropolitan France would be 64 million inhabitants, but they now agree that their estimates were too conservative, being based on the 1990s growth rate of population. Demographers now estimate that by 2050 metropolitan France's population will be 75 million, at which time it will be the most populated country of the European Union, above Germany (71 million), the United Kingdom (59 million), and Italy (43 million). If these estimates become reality, it may fundamentally alter the balance of power in Brussels. It would be the first time since the 1860s that France is the nation with the largest population within Europe (Russia excluded). In mid-2004 the EU had 460 million inhabitants, 13.6% of whom were living in France (including overseas départements). By 2050 it is estimated that the population of the European Union (of the current 25 members) will have declined to 445 million inhabitants, of whom 17.5% will be living in France. According to the UNHCR, the number of people seeking political asylum in France rose by around 3 % between 2003 and 2004, while in the same period, the number of asylum applications submitted in the United States fell by about 29 %. France thereby replaced the United States as the world's top destination for asylum-seekers in 2004. A perennial political issue concerns rural depopulation. Over the period 1960-1999 fifteen rural départements experienced a decline in population. In the most extreme case, the population of Creuse fell by 24%.
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